KAMPALA. A dream that was threatening to implode has suddenly exploded back to life.
Following the crucial 1-0 victory over Ghana at Namboole on Saturday, the Cranes now need to just pick maximum points from Guinea in Casablanca on Wednesday and the 37-year absence from the Nations Cup is over.
Actually, no. They need just a draw, without a care about what happens between Ghana and Togo, to deliver Uganda the Holy Grail
Here is why
With one game to go, Ghana top Group E standings with eight points, Uganda and Guinea both on seven but the Cranes with a better goal difference, and Togo with six.
A Cranes draw in Casablanca corresponding with a Ghanaian - rather unlikely – home loss to Togo, would move Uganda level on points with the Black Stars.
Here is where the Caf tie-breaker rules will come in. After the points check, tie-breaker rules say head-to-head is considered and in this case, Uganda would edge Ghana since they took four points from them.
A Ghanaian victory corresponding with a Cranes draw would also see Cranes through since Guinea, who would also be on the same points as Uganda and the Black Stars, would have lost four points each to the former two.
Togo would be stuck on their six points and out. Put simply, a point in Casablanca will see Uganda qualify.
That said, any of the four teams can save you of all this calculus by simply winning their respective games.
If tied on points, tie-breakers are applied in the following order.
•Number of points obtained in games between the teams concerned
• Goal difference in games between the teams concerned (head-to-head)
• Goals scored in games between the teams concerned
• Away goals scored in games between the teams concerned
• Goal difference in all games
• Goals scored in all games
• Drawing of lots
Source: Daily Monitor